Rhino Numbers and Census
Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 12:20 pm
How Many White Rhinos are there Really in Kruger?
Thu Mar 15, 2012
This thread has nothing directly to do with the current poaching crisis, but is rather the result of a years old questioning of Sanparks' ESTIMATES regarding the normal population trends, and more specifically the grand total of said species in KNP.
Around 2009/10, when figures of the sale of rhino from Skukuza to private owners rocketed to between 300 and 400 animals annually, questions were asked as to the feasibility of the 15 000 population figure used by Kruger to justify the extraction of surplus animals.
Up until the 1990's, Kruger had used an annual fixed-wing aerial census method aimed at covering the entire Park using identical yearly "transects" - lines flown at low level using light aircraft filled with spotters during the dry season, and repeated year after year.
The method worked well, with the estimated margin for error for WR specifically estimated at only 5%.
Since then, however, Kruger has used a highly complicated modern statististical system to estimate mammal numbers, using random aerial sampling linked to various vegetation zones etc. It is highly complicated, to repeat, and more info will be forthcoming later...but only around 15% of the Park is actually aerially surveyed.
Using simpler trending algorythms from the old reliable totals, all experts/conservationists/veterans I have polled over the last years have maintained that there can be no more than 11 000 White rhino in Kruger, with the average estimate being around 9000. These figures represent simple natural increases, and DISREGARD annual rhino sales and the effect of poaching, so one can draw one's own conclusions.
It must be said that the Southern Section may have been APPROACHING saturation point for WR numbers in 2009/10, but that is a subject for conjecture.
Thu Mar 15, 2012
This thread has nothing directly to do with the current poaching crisis, but is rather the result of a years old questioning of Sanparks' ESTIMATES regarding the normal population trends, and more specifically the grand total of said species in KNP.
Around 2009/10, when figures of the sale of rhino from Skukuza to private owners rocketed to between 300 and 400 animals annually, questions were asked as to the feasibility of the 15 000 population figure used by Kruger to justify the extraction of surplus animals.
Up until the 1990's, Kruger had used an annual fixed-wing aerial census method aimed at covering the entire Park using identical yearly "transects" - lines flown at low level using light aircraft filled with spotters during the dry season, and repeated year after year.
The method worked well, with the estimated margin for error for WR specifically estimated at only 5%.
Since then, however, Kruger has used a highly complicated modern statististical system to estimate mammal numbers, using random aerial sampling linked to various vegetation zones etc. It is highly complicated, to repeat, and more info will be forthcoming later...but only around 15% of the Park is actually aerially surveyed.
Using simpler trending algorythms from the old reliable totals, all experts/conservationists/veterans I have polled over the last years have maintained that there can be no more than 11 000 White rhino in Kruger, with the average estimate being around 9000. These figures represent simple natural increases, and DISREGARD annual rhino sales and the effect of poaching, so one can draw one's own conclusions.
It must be said that the Southern Section may have been APPROACHING saturation point for WR numbers in 2009/10, but that is a subject for conjecture.