Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

Discussion on Elephant Management and poaching topics
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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

Post by Richprins »

Elephant have largely destroyed the lower stratum of riparian vegetation in most of Chobe, and there are way too many. The environment has been changed there, and there have even been die-offs.


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

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I am sure that you are right, but I am always rather sceptical when it is the government to decide on these very delicate problems O-/


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

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I see they want to close off the SW Kalahari NATURAL migration route the LAST such open ended wilderness where 10's of thousands of Eland , Wildebeest , Springbok, Gemsbok etc migrate unfenced for hundreds of kms ...through basically uninhabited land ..Unlike Kruger which is fenced and a glorified North South Farm ...They havent a CLUE have they


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

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That's exactly what I am afraid of :yes:


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

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Elephants drink water in the Chobe National Park in Botswana. (Charmaine Noronha/AP)

Syndicates move south; Botswana president calls it fake news

BY DON PINNOCK - 25 FEBRUARY 2019 - DAILY MAVERICK - FREE TO PUBLISH CREDIT CAT

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A report by Elephants Without Borders claiming ‘a significant poaching outbreak is ongoing in at least four distinct hotspots’ in Botswana has provoked government ire.

Anyone who saw the results of the 2014 Great African Elephant Census knew it was only a matter of time before the poaching tsunami hit Botswana.

The census led by Elephants Without Borders (EWB) was a shocker: Africa is losing elephants to poachers at an average of one every 15 minutes. There are only 415,000 savanna elephants left – down from several million a century ago and over a million in the 1970s.

International poaching syndicates – having wiped out large numbers of elephants in central, west and east Africa – are moving south, and the latest census of Northern Botswana by EWB has confirmed this.

It found the poaching of elephants in Botswana had increased dramatically and that the outbreak was the largest recorded since the 1970s. It suggests that the world’s largest elephant population may be at risk.

The first week of the survey, EWB head Dr Mike Chase raised concerns with the appropriate authorities and, throughout the survey, continued to alert the government as to the alarming number of carcasses and evidence seen of poaching. It should have rung alarm bells, but instead, it produced outrage, finger pointing, personal smears and claims that it was fake news.

This reached a near-hysterical level when a local journalist broke the poaching story, which was picked up by the BBC and went worldwide. Why?

First let’s see what the census found: Botswana’s elephant population was found to be static, but between 2014 and 2018, the number of “fresh/recent” carcasses had increased by a startling 593%.

Most of those were poached, their tusks chopped out with pangas and skulls halved. Most poached carcasses observed up close on the ground were bulls aged between 35-55, presumably carrying exceptionally large “trophy quality” ivory. Many were clustered, indicating targeted poaching operations. Photographic evidence and GPS locations were taken of all poached elephants and submitted to the relevant authorities during the survey.

Botswana contains roughly a third of Africa’s savanna elephants, but since 2010 the population appears to have plateaued. Although poaching has not reached the levels of countries to the north and east, ‘”evidence suggests that the problem has reached Botswana”.

Chase is a world expert on elephants and the survey science had been meticulous. In over four months his team flew 1,074 transects 360 metres wide covering 103,662 square kilometres and travelling 32,283 km. In addition, helicopters were used to make ground inspections of carcasses.

The total elephant population estimate came to 126,114 plus 11,044 estimated carcasses. Estimated numbers of elephant carcasses however increased by 21% from 2014 to 2018. Numbers of fresh or recent carcasses actually seen increased by 593% between 2014 and 2018. In 2014, of those that were seen, none were considered poached. While in 2018, of the recent carcasses examined 81% were confirmed as poached.

According to the report, “evidence suggests that a significant poaching outbreak is ongoing in at least four distinct hotspots”.

The report was favourably peer-reviewed by some of the world’s foremost elephant experts. Ian Douglas-Hamilton of Save the Elephants wrote:

“I am very impressed with the thoroughness and expertise in the way the count was planned, implemented, analysed and written up. On the evidence, I am persuaded that your conclusion is correct that there has been an overall increase in elephant poaching in Botswana.

“Your count showing that elephant poaching has increased to a greater level than any previously recorded raises the possibility that further escalations are possible.”

Conservation biologist Dr Keith Lindsay of the Environment and Development Group in Oxford wrote:

“I have been through the report. A very high-quality survey and thorough analysis, touching all the bases. It is hard to see how anyone can dispute any of the results of this. This is a very important piece of work.”

A report by Falk Grossman, of the Niassa Reserve, and Paul Elkan, of the Wildlife Conservation Society, said the EWB’s survey design, methods and implementation were “of a very high standard and well within current accepted areal survey standards for strip sampling”. They said the report provided “indisputable evidence of the observations”.

The facts of the census were clearly correct, but it inadvertently touched a raw nerve with the new president of Botswana, Mokgweetsi Masisi, who was planning to end the ban on trophy elephant hunting and maybe use it to garner votes for the upcoming election. Botswana, it transpired, had joined a submission to the wildlife trade organisation CITES by South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe to allow trade in ivory.

One of the EWB’s research permits were revoked and Chase was accused of “taking the team to old elephant bones or carcasses that died of natural causes”. It was suggested that he be prosecuted for “leaking” information while under contract to the Botswana government, though EWB says it has no contractual constraint on information and that no taxpayers funds were used for the survey.

President Masisi then mounted a personal attack on EWB and Chase personally for spreading “fake news”. At a kgotla meeting in Maun, he described the elephant-poaching story as “blue lies” perpetuated by “certain people with ulterior motives to tarnish the good name of Botswana”. The government followed with a statement refuting the EWB’s scientific findings:1

“The Government of Botswana wishes to inform members of the public and other key stakeholders that these statistics are false and misleading. At no point in the last months or recently were 87 or 90 elephants killed in one incident in any place in Botswana.

“The Government of Botswana wishes to condemn in the strongest terms possible attempts by individuals or groups who give a false impression that they love Botswana wildlife more than citizens of Botswana.”

In a carefully crafted story without a byline in the local Sunday Standard on 10 September 2018, details began to emerge: After two terms in office, Ian Khama handed over the presidential reins to his vice-president, Masisi, in March 2018, expecting his handpicked successor to continue with his policies. Masisi surprised Khama by reversing many of the previous administration’s wildlife initiatives.

In the new corridors of power there appears to be political paranoia about the Khama legacy and for the new premier, the elephant issue was low-hanging fruit.

“President Mokgweetsi Masisi is facing a vicious pushback from the all-powerful tourism old-boys’ network which was the invisible force behind former President Ian Khama’s administration,” the newspaper began.

“The recent elephants’ massacre propaganda war waged by tourism interests against the Masisi administration is believed to be part of a big ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy employed by former President Khama’s allies to chip Masisi’s power.

“For decades the Botswana tourism industry existed, not to serve Batswana, but as a site for rent extraction by the very small minority that controlled political power.”

Responding to the moves, Khama told The Times that he despaired at what he saw as his conservation legacy being squandered by Masisi.

“I am aware I sound upset when I talk about this,” he said, “but I know how long it took us to get to where we were and now seeing how quickly things can be reversed. Hunting or a cull would result in Botswana being hammered internationally. You don’t kill your way out of a problem.”

The possibility of lifting the hunting ban was music to the ears of Safari Club International, the world’s biggest hunting association, which posted an interview with Professor Joseph Mbaiwa of the University of Botswana claiming the elephant population was double the country’s carrying capacity. He offered no proof to back his claim.

In the hunting issue, Khama is not blameless. While his anti-hunting policies created a photo safari boom, one of his biggest mistakes was to unsuccessfully fill the voids created when he stopped hunting at the end of the 2013 safari season. Most of those ex-hunting concessions have been lying dormant ever since, even though offers were made by photo safari companies to lease many of them. Most poaching, however, is taking place in the photographic concessions.

Communities that once received meat and cash from hunting were left with empty stomachs and drained bank balances. A number of rural Okavango communities had the revenues they earned from tourism conducted away from them into the controversial new Land Bank that was set up and controlled by central government.

These communities are understandably discontent at their losses and in an election season, their voices get heard. While Botswana earns most of its foreign revenue from diamonds and tourism, much of the internal economy is about rural communities, farmers and cattle – and they carry the votes.

There has also been little policy direction on how communities can effectively deal with roving elephants that destroy crops and harass – even kill – people. These tragic incidents are reported in the press and reach the ears of politicians and the pro-hunting lobby, which appears to have exploited them to persuade the Botswana government to reverse the ban on sports hunting. Legalised hunting, however, is unlikely to curb human-elephant conflict.

In the 2014 elections, Khama’s ruling BDP party failed to win an outright majority, garnering just 46.5% of the popular vote, retaining power only because opposition parties were fragmented. The next elections are around October 2019, before which President Masisi will have to consolidate his and the BDP’s position. There have already been challenges to him from within his party. One of his strategies is to address matters not dealt with sufficiently under Khama’s administration.

By pure coincidence, as the new president’s plan to open hunting coincided with the EWB’s census on a sharp escalation in poaching. A poaching crisis is not a good time to push for trophy hunting, so it appears Masisi’s approach was to attempt to kill the message, if not the messenger. As a scientist, Chase reported what he saw, but it was not the message the new Gaborone administration wished to hear.

What remains to be seen is the effect renewed hunting would have on Botswana’s booming tourism industry, one of the pillars of its economy. Between 2013 (the last year of hunting) and 2018, tourism in the country grew its contribution to Botswana’s GDP by a staggering 70%. In 2017 it contributed over $2-billion to the economy and provided 76,000 jobs. Tourism investment for that year was $443-million.

One study estimated the value of an elephant throughout its lifetime to be about US$1.6-million from tourism. The total intrinsic value of the 96 confirmed poached elephants would be a loss of US$153,600,000.

Unbanning hunting may be a vote catcher, but doing it at a time when poaching is escalating in Botswana could be extremely bad news for elephants – and the country’s thriving tourism industry.

Local communities have benefited hugely from the growth of tourism, which provides thousands of jobs and opportunities for training and skills transfers – far beyond anything provided by the hunting industry. If hunting hit the tourist industry they would suffer. DM

Late last week a Botswana cabinet committee handed Masisi their report regarding management of the country’s wildlife. It was a triumph for hunters and a shock for conservationists. Their recommendations were:

• The hunting ban be lifted.

• Develop a legal framework that will create an enabling environment for the growth of the safari hunting industry.

• Manage Botswana elephant population within its historic range;

• Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) should undertake an effective community outreach programme within the elephant range for Human-Elephant Conflict mitigation;

• Strategically placed human-wildlife conflict fences be constructed in key hotspot areas;

• Game ranches be demarcated to serve as buffers between communal and wildlife areas;

• Compensation for damage caused by wildlife, ex gratia amounts and the list of species that attract compensation be reviewed;

• All wildlife migratory routes that are not beneficial to the country’s conservation efforts be closed;

• The Kgalagadi southwesterly antelope migratory route into South Africa should be closed by demarcating game ranches between the communal areas and Kgalagadi Wildlife Management Areas; and

• Regular but limited elephant culling be introduced and the establishment of elephant meat canning, including a production of pet food and processing into other by-products.


Read original article: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... _inbound=1


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

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Botswana proposes hunting and trade as elephant population declines[/b]]

2019-02-26 12:21
Louise de Waal


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The results of the recent and most extensive elephant population survey of Botswana estimates the country’s population at 126 000 elephants, a further decline from 131 600 reported in 2014. According to Conservation Action Trust, the report shows repeated evidence of significant increases in elephant poaching in four hotspots in Northern Botswana, which started a media storm last year

This report by Elephants without Borders (EWB) comes after the cabinet sub-committee presented their pro hunting report to President Mokgweetsi Masisi on Thursday last week, which proposes not only lifting the hunting ban, but also the introduction of regular elephant culling and associated elephant meat canning industry for pet food, as well as closing certain wildlife migratory routes.

Botswana government earlier submitted a proposal to CITES in preparation for the CoP18 meeting in May this year, asking to amend the CITES listing of the African savannah elephant to allow for trade in hunting trophies, live animals and registered (government-owned) stocks of raw ivory.

According to the African Elephant Status report (2016), Botswana’s elephant population declined by 15% in the preceding 10 years. This report clearly shows that Botswana’s elephant population is not increasing, as is often suggested in political and hunting corridors. Although its population is still the largest in Southern Africa, it’s actually 100 000 less than the 237 000 often quoted by politicians and the media in Botswana. In attempts to justify culling and hunting.

Elephant sightings are prized in the wild, but this latest sighting in Botswana is quite the close encounter. Su-An Marais shared with Latestsightings.com how her most recent safari experience more than rocked her boat.

Image
(Supplied, Conservation Action Trust)

The EWB elephant population of 126 000 is based on a region-wide aerial survey, covering a larger area than any previous study by EWB. The joint EWB and DWNP team flew over a period of 62 days, recording more than 32 000 km of transects and covering over 100 000 km2 of Botswana, including and surrounding Wildlife Management Areas, Okavango Delta and Moremi Game Reserve, and the pastoral areas in Ngamiland, Chobe and the Central Districts.

Four elephant poaching hotspots revealed in Northern Botswana

Since the last survey in 2014, the EWB research team discovered a steep increase in the number of fresh and recent elephant carcasses, i.e. elephants that died within the last year of both natural causes and poaching.

The EWB team confirmed that of the 128 elephant carcasses less than one year old, 72 were confirmed either on the ground or by aerial assessment as killed by poachers and an additional 22 from survey photographs as poaching victims. In addition, 79 older than one-year carcasses were assessed in one particular hotspot, of which 63 were confirmed as poached. The all-age carcass ratio increased from 6.8% to 8.1% between 2014 and 2018, generally accepted as indicating an elephant population that could be declining.

The elephant remains all show the graphic evidence of poaching with a similar modus operandi. Poachers shoot the animals with high calibre rifles when they come to drink at remote seasonal pans. If the elephant doesn’t die immediately, one of the poachers immobilises it by damaging the spinal cord with an axe. Their tusks are hacked away, severely damaging the skull, the trunk is often removed from the face, and the carcass is covered in cut branches in an attempt to hide the dead animal.

The poachers seem to operate in a certain area, targeting the bulls with large tusks, before moving on to the next site. They are in no apparent rush, as a poacher’s camp was also discovered close to one of the carcass clusters.

The ground verification team established that the vast majority of poached elephants are indeed bulls between the age 35-45 years old. This also corresponds with evidence in the report that the bull population has decreased from 21 600 individuals in 2014 to 19 400 in 2018

The poaching appears predominately in four hotspots in Northern Botswana – the area between the Pan Handle and Caprivi Strip, in and around the Savuti section of Chobe including Khwai and Linyanti, near Maun, and in the area between Chobe and Nxai Pan.

A panel of nine independent elephant scientists reviewed the EWB report and found the science to be rock solid. One member stated, “this is a very thorough and carefully documented report demonstrating exceptionally high rigour”.

Nevertheless, the Botswana government still attempts to cast doubt on various issues detailed in the report, as part of a confusing political campaign. EWB strongly refutes the government claims and says they find it regrettable that the government have not contacted them directly to discuss the report. In addition to the many elephant fatalities, 13 rhinos were killed by poachers in just 11 months in Botswana, three of which were in the Okavango Delta.

The surge in wildlife poaching is alarming, but sadly not unique to Botswana. Dr Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a member of the reviewing panel, says “in my view [the EWB] count showing that elephant poaching has increased to a greater level than previously thought, raises the possibility that further escalations are possible”.

Another member adds, “it is safe to say that, if the observed poaching trend continues, there could be a significant decrease in elephant populations. Politicians never like to see negative publicity however this should act as a warning call, and preventative action should be taken”.


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

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Oppose Botswana's suggested 'Blood Laws' of elephant culls and trophy hunts

If you want to sign the petition, click on the title \O

Dereck Joubert started this petition to His Excellency, the President of Botswana, Mokgweetsi Masisi

On the 21st February 2019, a Botswana subcommittee handed over the below mentioned recommendations following a hunting ban of elephants that has been in place since 2014. After consultation with researchers, hunters and public hearings their suggestions are as follows:

• Hunting ban be lifted.
• Develop a legal framework that will create an enabling environment for growth of safari hunting industry.
• Manage Botswana elephant population within its historic range
• Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) should undertake an effective community outreach program within the elephant range for Human Elephant Conflict mitigation
• Strategically placed human wildlife conflict fences be constructed in key hotspot areas
• Game ranches be demarcated to serve as buffers between communal and wildlife areas.
• Compensation for damage caused by wildlife, ex gratia amounts and the list of species that attract compensation be reviewed. In addition, other models that alleviate compensation burden on Government be considered.
• All wildlife migratory routes that are not beneficial to the country’s conservation efforts be closed.
• The Kgalagadi southwesterly antelope migratory route into South Africa should be closed by demarcating game ranches between the communal areas and Kgalagadi Wildlife Management Areas.
• Regular but limited elephant culling be introduced and establishment of elephant meat canning, including production of pet food and processing into other by products.

These suggestions are now expected to be debated by the Botswana president with his cabinet before becoming law.

Having been deeply involved in wildlife conservation in Botswana for over 30 years we've seen the issues and damage caused by trophy hunting as well as the recovery of wildlife populations and ecosystems following the removal of hunting. We are also well-versed with the often dangerous impact on communities living with wildlife. It is unsurprising that we oppose and protest these recommendations. After very favourable engagement with government, we've been encouraged to solicit opinion. Our voices matter. Our government is an open one with a willingness to listen. Now is the moment to be heard.

I, Dereck Joubert, together with Great Plains Conservation would therefore like to publicly oppose a number of these recommendations and would ask that you support this petition if you share our concerns which follow:

•The suggested actions by Botswana will be disastrous to what is globally considered to be one of the great conservation areas and stories of the world that can and does attract conservation-minded travellers. This sector employs over 42% of the workforce in Ngamiland and these proposed changes threaten those jobs.
The photographic conservation tourism industry is the second largest revenue-generating industry to Botswana’s fiscus. We have seen in several economic models that safari hunting industries will not be able to replace that level of income and will be more likely damage it as photographic safari tourists decide to visit other countries instead.

•It is unclear what ‘managing elephants in their historic range’ means as this includes the entirely of Botswana and reinforces the necessity of wildlife corridors throughout - not the removal of corridors as is suggested.

•We agree that the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) should undertake an effective community outreach program within the elephant range for Human-Elephant Conflict mitigation. Many NGOs have been working on this for years as has the ministry through its programs. However, an increase in elephant aggression, which is inevitable with a renewal in hunting, will mean starting from scratch.

•The suggestion to construct human-wildlife conflict fences in key hotspot areas is also a welcome one. Enclosing and protecting villages next to elephant corridors could do a great deal to keep communities safe and we would be interested in assisting with funding for this. Additionally, the re-evaluation of compensation schemes is welcomed. As conservation efforts evolve, new ideas are always encouraged and there are plenty of examples of compensation schemes working well in wildlife areas across Africa and the world. Those lessons can be drawn on to the benefit of communities, wildlife and government.

•The suggestion to close migration routes is such a strange one that it feels like it has been placed there as a distraction to be discarded later as an appeasement to those who oppose the reinstatement of trophy hunting. There cannot be a migration route that does not have conservation value, almost by definition. Animals move for very specific reasons and Botswana has seen the massive damage caused by blocking migration routes before – such as when the Vet Fences were erected in the 1970s, decimating many populations of migrating antelope and zebras. Corridors in dry areas, such as the Kalahari are especially important, giving wildlife a chance of survival when rains fail, as well as alleviating stress on the land that needs time to recover from grazing. This is particularly important now with climate change adding yet more instability to these areas. Corridors for wildlife are vitally important for natural systems to exist and the failure to recognise this shows a deep misunderstanding of ecological functioning and conservation management.

•As for elephant culling – to what end? Small culls would not impact an overall population, but it would end up traumatising the remaining elephants, adding extra danger to communities who live amongst them. The hunts, and proposed culls, would therefore not be for any conservation reason at all, but only to satisfy greed. This can only result in community killings as people get trampled and attacked in retaliation by wounded elephants or those traumatised by the death of a family member. The stockpiled ivory from these culls and hunts would not only find its way into the black markets but also create pressure on Botswana advocating to step out of being a signatory on the ban of the ivory trade, and once again, attract international condemnation.
As elephant culls in South Africa have revealed, it doesn’t help to spare the babies when entire families must be gunned down. Young elephants grow up without the discipline of their parents, cause a problem for others and indeed become traumatised themselves. It is highly unlikely that a business manufacturing pet food made from the bodies of baby elephants and their families would succeed. In South Africa, despite governmental agreement to cull, the country has shelved the idea due to the massive damage to tourism, massive public outcry and the damage that would certainly result to country’s popularity as a tourism destination.

The “Botswana’ model is such a huge success that it is envied and being replicated in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, and it is soon to start in Gabon, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and other countries. To abandon this impressive conservation success for the archaic management by gun will not only be disastrous for the wildlife and tourism of Botswana, but these negative effects will also feed onto the communities who live with wildlife. In no hunting country in the world, have remote villages been lifted out of poverty thanks to trophy hunting.

We see no benefit from these recommendations to the overall population of Botswana, their wildlife nor any conservation programs and ask that the government of Botswana considers the massive and detrimental effect that a reintroduction would do and keeps the present visionary status of its wildlife in place and indeed consider creating more wildlife corridors to actually alleviate any congestion and concentration of elephants.

We believe that in this day and age we are better than this, have learnt lessons from the past, and owe it our communities, wildlife, and to nature not to resort to violent tactics that will only result in more blood on our hands.

Dereck Joubert and Great Plains Conservation


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

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Botswana elephants – to trophy hunt and cull, or not?

The current international furore over a Botswana government White Paper (discussion document) regarding elephant management necessitates an understanding of the entire picture. This post is one of six posts from various sources looking at this issue from different angles.

The other five posts you should read to get the full picture:

• Opinion post from Dereck Joubert - conservation spokesperson, filmmaker and lodge owner

• Opinion post from Gail Potgieter - human-wildlife conflict specialist

• Botswana 2018 aerial survey - of elephants, baobabs and cattle

• Botswana government questions elephant survey report by Dr Mike Chase

• Personal statement from Dr Mike Chase, who is being widely quoted (and misquoted) by international news media, with regard to elephant poaching statistics

BOTSWANA GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCEMENT – HUNTING BAN SHOULD BE LIFTED

The report was officially handed over to President Mokgweetsi Masisi at a briefing on Thursday. The subcommittee, made up of seven cabinet ministers and one junior minister, have been consulting with researchers and hunters as well as attending weeks of public hearings on the elephant hunting ban, which was introduced in 2014 by the previous administration.

The report and its recommendations will now be debated by the President and the cabinet, before becoming law.


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

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Clearing up misconceptions about elephant poaching in Botswana

BY MICHAEL CHASE AND SCOTT SCHLOSSBERG - 2019

A Response to:
Kathleen Alexander – Virginia Tech University
John (Tico) McNutt – Botswana Predator Conservation Trust
Mark Vandewalle – CARACAL


In a September 2018 article in Africa Geographic, three scientists—Kathleen Alexander, J.W. McNutt, and Mark Vandewalle—questioned Elephants Without Borders’ account of large numbers of poached carcasses in northern Botswana. Dr Alexander also criticized Elephants Without Borders (EWB) in an article in the New York Times and Safarious. Alexander et al did not see any of our original data, nor did they request it from us. Disagreements in the scientific community can be a good thing but passing judgment on others’ research without seeing their data is malpractice. These claims made by Alexander need to be answered in the interest of elephant conservation. Here, using our peer reviewed report, we set the record straight on elephant poaching in Botswana.

Claim 1: EWB exaggerated the scale of poaching.
“But it’s clear that the allegations of scale are imagined.” (New York Times) “There is no scientific basis for the dramatic assertions of elephant poaching in Botswana made in recent media reports” says Kathleen Alexander. (Safarious)

Alexander and her co-authors got the numbers all wrong when trying to dismantle our claims about poaching. They also appeared to not understand the difference between ‘observed’ and ‘estimated’ numbers of elephant carcasses. On our 2014 survey we only saw 18 fresh elephant carcasses and estimated a total of 130 fresh carcasses for all of northern Botswana. None of those carcasses were suspected poached. By early September 2018, we had reported 87 poached carcasses to the Government of Botswana. By the end of the survey we had seen even more. Alexander and her coauthors were wrong in comparing the 87 carcasses observed in a relatively small area in 2018 to the estimate of 130 for the whole country in 2014. When the 2018 survey was complete, we estimated a total of 837 fresh carcasses for northern Botswana. This is nearly 600% more than in 2014!

We continued to verify a limited sample set of carcasses in an area observed as a “hotspot” to assess cause of death. Of the 79 carcasses examined on the ground, 63 were confirmed as poached. Thus, we confirmed 157 carcasses as poached.

In September 2018, we said to the BBC, “we are recording double the number of fresh poached elephants than anywhere else in Africa.” This statement is true. The estimate of 837 fresh carcasses is roughly double the number of fresh carcasses estimated in any other country on the 2014-2015 Great Elephant Census. Our estimate was greater than the estimates for all of Tanzania (428), Angola (394), or Mozambique (297), countries with major poaching problems. So, the number of fresh carcasses we saw in Botswana poaching hotspots is consistent with a serious poaching problem.

Our report was peer-reviewed by nine scientists who agreed with our conclusions that a worrisome increase in poaching is occurring. There is no exaggeration of the problem.

Claim 2: Observers cannot determine if a carcass was poached by viewing it from an airplane “simply not possible to attribute cause of death from fixed‑wing aircraft.” (New York Times)

During our 2018 aerial survey, when an observer saw a potentially poached carcass (missing tusks or covered with cut branches), we circled the carcass with the plane and took photographs. To be absolutely certain that these elephants were poached, we used helicopters to visit 72 fresh carcasses seen on the survey that we suspected were poached. When we got close-up looks, either on the ground or from low elevation in the helicopter, all 72 of those carcasses were clearly poached. Their skulls had been hacked apart by poachers to remove the tusks. Most were covered with branches to hide them. Another 22 carcasses photographed during the aerial survey, showed clear evidence that they were also poached. So, 100% of the suspected poached carcasses that we have checked are confirmed as poached. We are confident in the ability of our highly experienced observers to recognize a poached carcass from the air.

Claim 3: The Government of Botswana chops tusks from dead elephants “The Botswana military…removes tusks from all elephant carcasses. The process to remove the ivory is the same as that used by poachers.” (Africa Geographic)

From 20 years of field observations in northern Botswana, I can state that elephant tusks are normally only pulled out from the skull of an old decomposed carcass, not a fresh one. Tusks are not chopped from the skull unless the elephant was killed close to human settlements. Most elephants killed near settlements, are either butchered for meat or burned. Nearly all the poached elephants we observed were far from towns or villages. We also know that the authorities do not cover carcasses with bushes. The authorities typically mark carcasses they have visited with spray paint, which was not seen on the poached carcasses we visited. During the survey, we saw hundreds of carcasses of various age classes that still had their tusks intact. Not “all” are collected.

All the poached elephants that we examined on the ground were bulls, mostly aged 35-55, which means that they would have had relatively large tusks. We know that poachers elsewhere in Africa specifically target bulls, especially when they move into a new area.

Claim 4: Botswana has a healthy, growing elephant population “Botswana has a growing, healthy elephant population” (New York Times)

Our estimate of 126,000 elephants in 2018 is practically identical to the numbers we reported in 2014. So, the elephant population in Botswana is currently stable, not growing. A healthy elephant population should be growing at 3-5% or more per year. “Evidence” for a growing elephant population in Botswana relies on the results of a 2012 survey by Botswana’s Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP). They claimed a national population of over 200,000 elephants in 2012. DWNP uses lowintensity surveys where they sample just a small portion of the elephant population (around 4%) and extrapolate from there. Low-intensity surveys can produce imprecise results. EWB surveys cover three times as much ground as the government’s and should produce better population estimates as a result.

Regardless of whether or not the overall population is growing, Botswana’s elephant population is not healthy everywhere. The large numbers of poached carcasses that we documented indicate a growing problem. In Chobe National Park, elephant populations have decreased by 42% since 2010. In the poaching hotspots we identified, elephant populations are down 16% since 2014. These numbers do not indicate healthy populations.

Michael Chase and Scott Schlossberg
Elephants Without Borders

Read original doc here: https://conservationaction.co.za/wp-con ... 0319-1.pdf


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Re: Elephant Poaching, Census and Management in Botswana

Post by Lisbeth »

Botswana-2018-aerial-survey of elephants, baobabs and cattle

Posted on 4 March 2019 by Africa Geographic Editorial in Conservation, Poaching, Research, Wildlife and the Decoding Science post series.

Image
Location of suspected poached (red) and natural (yellow) elephant carcasses seen throughout the survey © Elephants Without Borders

BOTSWANA 2018 AERIAL SURVEY – OF ELEPHANTS, BAOBABS AND CATTLE

The much-debated 2018 aerial survey of Botswana’s wildlife is now available to members of the public via the Elephants Without Borders website.

Specific aspects of this survey have been the subject of heated social media debate and political posturing from all sides. Which is a pity, because this peer-reviewed report covers a lot more than the numbers of elephant carcasses – be they fresh, old, poached or natural deaths. You can also read about how baobab trees are being impacted by elephants, about significant increases in populations of many species and reductions in others, and about fluctuations in livestock numbers.

This fascinating and comprehensive report is well worth the read, especially if you wish to participate meaningfully in these important discussions.


"Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world." Nelson Mandela
The desire for equality must never exceed the demands of knowledge
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